Effect of calorie labelling in the out-of-home food sector on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and social inequalities in England: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: England implemented a menu calorie labelling policy in large, out-of-home food businesses in 2022. We aimed to model the likely policy impact on population-level obesity and cardiovascular disease mortality, as well as the socioeconomic equity of estimated effects, in the adult population in England. METHODS: For this modelling analysis, we built a comparative assessment model using two scenarios: the current implementation scenario refers to actual deployment only in large (≥250 employees), out-of-home food businesses, whereas the full implementation scenario refers to deployment in every out-of-home food business. We compared each scenario with a counterfactual: the scenario in which no intervention is implemented (ie, baseline). For both scenarios, we modelled the impact of the policy through assumed changes in energy intake due to either consumer response or product reformulation by retailers. We used data from the Office for National Statistics and the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2009-19, and modelled the effect over 20 years (ie, 2022-41) to capture the long-term impact of the policy and provided mid-period results after 10 years. We used the Monte Carlo approach (2500 iterations) to estimate the uncertainty of model parameters. For each scenario, the model generated the change in obesity prevalence and the total number of deaths prevented or postponed. FINDINGS: The current implementation scenario was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence by 0·31 percentage points (absolute; 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·10-0·35), which would prevent or postpone 730 cardiovascular disease deaths (UI 430-1300) of the 830 000 deaths (UI 600 000-1 200 000) expected over 20 years. However, the health benefits would be increased if calorie labelling was implemented in all out-of-home food businesses (2·65 percentage points reduction in obesity prevalence [UI 1·97-3·24] and 9200 cardiovascular disease deaths prevented or postponed [UI 5500-16 000]). Results were similar in the most and the least deprived socioeconomic groups. INTERPRETATION: This study offers the first modelled estimation of the impact of the menu calorie labelling regulation on the adult population in England, although we did not include a cost-effectiveness analysis. Calorie labelling might result in a reduction in obesity prevalence and cardiovascular disease mortality without widening health inequalities. However, our results emphasise the need for the government to be more ambitious by applying this policy to all out-of-home food businesses to maximise impact. FUNDING: European Research Council.

Shifts in dietary patterns and risk of type-2 diabetes in a Caribbean adult population: ways to address diabetes burden.

PURPOSE: As the French West Indies are facing an ongoing nutrition transition with increasing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence, our study aimed to evaluate the effect of potential shifts in dietary patterns on T2DM risk in French West Indian adults according to several scenarios. METHODS: We used a cross-sectional multistage sampling survey on dietary intake conducted in 2013 on a representative sample of Guadeloupeans and Martinicans adults (n = 1063). From previously identified current dietary patterns, we used PRIME-Diabetes, a comparative risk assessment model, to estimate the effect of potential shifts from the "transitioning" pattern to the "convenient," the "prudent," and the "traditional" ones on T2DM risks. RESULTS: Potential shift in dietary intakes from the "transitioning" pattern to the "traditional" one reduced the T2DM risk in women (- 16% [- 22; - 10]) and in men - 14% [- 21; - 7]), as the shift in dietary intakes toward the "prudent" pattern (- 23% [- 29; - 17] and - 19% - 23; - 14], respectively). These risk reductions were mostly driven by increased whole grains, fruits, green leafy vegetable intakes, and decreases in potatoes, red meats, processed meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. The shift in dietary intakes toward the "convenient" pattern did not affect the T2DM risks. CONCLUSION: To curb the increase in T2DM prevalence and reduce this burden, one public health action could be to target transitioning adults and help them to shift towards a diet associated with a reduced risk of T2DM as a prudent or a traditional diet.

Socioeconomic position and the effect of energy labelling on consumer behaviour: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are well documented socioeconomic disparities in diet quality and obesity. Menu energy labelling is a public health policy designed to improve diet and reduce obesity. However, it is unclear whether the impact energy labelling has on consumer behaviour is socially equitable or differs based on socioeconomic position (SEP). METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental (between-subjects) and pre-post implementation field studies examining the impact of menu energy labelling on energy content of food and/or drink selections in higher vs. lower SEP groups. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were eligible for inclusion. Meta-analyses of 13 experimental studies that predominantly examined hypothetical food and drink choices showed that energy labelling tended to be associated with a small reduction in energy content of selections that did not differ based on participant SEP (X2(1) = 0.26, p = .610). Effect estimates for higher SEP SMD = 0.067 [95% CI: -0.092 to 0.226] and lower SEP SMD = 0.115 [95% CI: -0.006 to 0.237] were similar. A meta-analysis of 3 pre-post implementation studies of energy labelling in the real world showed that the effect energy labelling had on consumer behaviour did not significantly differ based on SEP (X2(1) = 0.22, p = .636). In higher SEP the effect was SMD = 0.032 [95% CI: -0.053 to 0.117] and in lower SEP the effect was SMD = -0.005 [95% CI: -0.051 to 0.041]. CONCLUSIONS: Overall there was no convincing evidence that the effect energy labelling has on consumer behaviour significantly differs based on SEP. Further research examining multiple indicators of SEP and quantifying the long-term effects of energy labelling on consumer behaviour in real-world settings is now required. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022312532) and OSF ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W7RDB ).

Promotion of healthy nutrition in primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention: a clinical consensus statement from the European Association of Preventive Cardiology.

BACKGROUND: Poor dietary habits are common and lead to significant morbidity and mortality. However, addressing and improving nutrition in various cardiovascular settings remain sub-optimal. This paper discusses practical approaches to how nutritional counselling and promotion could be undertaken in primary care, cardiac rehabilitation, sports medicine, paediatric cardiology, and public health. DISCUSSION: Nutrition assessment in primary care could improve dietary patterns and use of e-technology is likely to revolutionize this. However, despite technological improvements, the use of smartphone apps to assist with healthier nutrition remains to be thoroughly evaluated. Cardiac rehabilitation programmes should provide individual nutritional plans adapted to the clinical characteristics of the patients and include their families in the dietary management. Nutrition for athletes depends on the sport and the individual and preference should be given to healthy foods, rather than nutritional supplements. Nutritional counselling is also very important in the management of children with familial hypercholesterolaemia and congenital heart disease. Finally, policies taxing unhealthy foods and promoting healthy eating at the population or workplace level could be effective for prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Within each setting, gaps in knowledge are provided. CONCLUSION: This clinical consensus statement contextualizes the clinician's role in nutrition management in primary care, cardiac rehabilitation, sports medicine, and public health, providing practical examples of how this could be achieved.

Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1). DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: General adult population of Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Men and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3. RESULTS: Proposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies.

Demographic and socio-economic shifts partly explain the Martinican nutrition transition: an analysis of 10-year health and dietary changes (2003-2013) using decomposition models.

OBJECTIVE: The Caribbean has seen a dramatic shift in the obesity and chronic disease prevalence over the past decades, suggesting a nutrition transition. Simultaneously, Martinique has faced a demographic transition marked by significant population ageing. We aimed to differentiate the contribution of changes in health status and dietary intakes due to shifts in demographic and socio-economic characteristics (DSEC) from that due to unobserved factors. DESIGN: Two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2003 (n 743) and 2013 (n 573) on representative samples were used. Dietary intakes were estimated by 24-h recalls. The contribution of changes in health status and dietary intakes due to shifts in observed DSEC was differentiated from that due to unobserved factors over a 10-year interval, using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition models. SETTING: Martinique, French region in the Caribbean. PARTICIPANTS: Martinican adults (≥16 years). RESULTS: Over the study period, health status deteriorated, partly owing to shifts in DSEC, explaining 62 % of the change in the prevalence of hypertension (+13 percentage points (pp)) and 48 % of waist circumference change (+3 cm). Diet quality decreased (mean adequacy ratio -2pp and mean excess ratio + 2 pp) and energy supplied by ultra-processed food increased (+4 pp). Shifts in DSEC marginally explained some changes in dietary intakes (e.g. increased diet quality), while the changes that remained unexplained were of opposite sign, with decreased diet quality, lower fruits, tubers and fish intakes and higher energy provided by ultra-processed foods. CONCLUSION: Explained dietary changes were of opposite sign to nutrition transition conceptual framework, probably because unobserved drivers are in play, such as food price trends or supermarkets spread.

Caribbean nutrition transition: what can we learn from dietary patterns in the French West Indies?

PURPOSE: Despite the urgency regarding increasing rates of obesity and chronic diseases in the Caribbean, few studies described the nutrition transition. We aimed to provide such information by identifying dietary patterns in the French West Indies and their characteristics. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis included 1144 Guadeloupeans and Martinicans from a multistage sampling survey conducted on a representative sample. Dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis followed by a clustering procedure, and described using multivariable regression models. RESULTS: Four patterns were identified: (i) a "prudent" pattern characterized by high intakes of fruits, vegetables, legumes, seafood and yogurts, low intakes of fatty and sweet products, and a high Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I); (ii) a "traditional" pattern characterized by high intakes of fruits, vegetables, tubers and fish, low intakes of red and processed meat, snacks, fast foods, and sweetened beverages, with a high DQI-I, mostly shaped by women and older persons; (iii) a "convenient" pattern characterized by high intakes of sweetened beverages, snacks, and fast foods, with the lowest DQI-I, principally shaped by young participants; (iv) a "transitioning" pattern characterized by high consumptions of bread, processed meat, sauces, alcoholic and sweetened beverages, but also high intakes of tubers, legumes, and fish, mainly shaped by men, middle aged, of whom 35% had metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSION: The co-existing dietary patterns in the French West Indies, marked by a generational contrast, seem to reflect different steps in dietary change as described in the literature, suggesting an ongoing nutrition transition.

Socioeconomic inequalities in metabolic syndrome in the French West Indies.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and metabolic diseases represent a major health burden in the Caribbean, particularly since a large part of the population is disadvantaged. However, socioeconomic inequalities in chronic diseases are poorly explored in this region. We investigated the association between socioeconomic position and metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalence and explored the contribution of diet quality to explain this association, among adults in the French West Indies. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis included 1144 subjects (≥16 y) from a multistage sampling survey conducted in 2013-2014 on a representative sample of the Guadeloupean and Martinican population. MetS prevalence was assessed using the Joint Interim Statement. Dietary intakes were estimated from 24 h-dietary recalls, and diet quality was assessed through the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I). Associations between socioeconomic indicators (education, employment, social assistance benefits) and MetS prevalence, and the potential contribution of diet quality in this association were assessed using multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: MetS prevalence adjusted for age and sex was 21 and 30% among Guadeloupean and Martinican, respectively. Compared to high-educated participants, low-educated subjects were more likely to be at risk of MetS (OR = 2.4; 95%CI = [1.3-4.4], respectively), as were recipients of social assistance benefits compared to non-recipients (OR = 2.0; 95%CI = [1.0-4.0]). The DQI-I explained 10.5% of the overall variation in MetS due to education. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities in MetS prevalence, reflected by education and social assistance benefits, were found. However, diet quality contributed only to socioeconomic inequalities due to education underlining that education may impact health through the ability to generate overall dietary behavior, long-term beneficial. Our work identified subgroups with higher risk of MetS, which is needed when implementing public health measures, particularly in this Caribbean population with of high poverty rates. Further prospective studies are needed to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of social inequalities in MetS in a high poverty rates context.

Individual characteristics associated with changes in the contribution of plant foods to dietary intake in a French prospective cohort.

PURPOSE: Rebalancing the contribution of animal- and plant-based foods is needed to achieve sustainable diet. However, little is known concerning individual characteristics that may influence intake of plant-based foods and their changes over time. We aimed to assess changes in the contribution of plant-based foods to dietary intake over time and their association with individual characteristics. METHODS: The contribution of plant-based foods was assessed by percent energy intake provided by plant proteins in diet (PEIPP) and a score of adherence to a pro-vegetarian diet, using repeated 24-h records in 15,615 French adults participating in the NutriNet-Santé cohort study. Associations between baseline individual characteristics and changes in the two indicators over a 4-6-year follow-up were assessed using a linear mixed model. RESULTS: At baseline, PEIPP and pro-vegetarian score were positively associated with age [ß65+ = 0.80, 95% CI = (0.71, 0.88), ß65+ = 3.30, 95% CI = (2.97, 3.64), respectively] and education [ßpostgraduate = 0.23, 95% CI = (0.12, 0.34), ßpostgraduate = 1.19, 95% CI = (0.75, 1.62)], while they were inversely associated with BMI class [ßobesity = - 0.48, 95% CI = (0.56, 0.41), ßobesity = - 2.31, 95% CI = (- 2.63, - 1.98)]. Men had higher PEIPP than women [ß = 0.06, 95% CI = (0.01, 0.11)]. Pro-vegetarian score significantly increased over time [ß = 0.23, 95% CI = (0.08, 0.37)]. The older the individual at baseline, the greater the decrease in the two indicators during follow-up. Pro-vegetarian score increased during follow-up for obese participants at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The contribution of plant-based foods was associated with several socio-demographic and economic characteristics at baseline, whereas change over time was related to age and weight status. Further analysis of individual obstacles and lever to consume plant-based foods is needed.

Higher Protein but Not Energy Intake Is Associated With a Lower Prevalence of Frailty Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults in the French Three-City Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The hypothesis that increasing protein and energy intakes may confer protection against frailty has been suggested, although few studies have examined these associations, especially regarding current protein energy recommendations in the older population. AIM: To assess the association between frailty and higher protein and energy intakes. METHODS: The present study is a secondary, cross-sectional analysis of the French Three-City cohort. Participants were community-dwelling older adults aged 65 and over. Frailty was defined as a score of 3/5 among the 5 Fried criteria: weight loss, exhaustion, muscle weakness, slowness, and physical activity. Protein intake was set at a daily intake ≥1 g/kg body weight and optimal energy intake defined as a daily intake ≥30 kcal/kg. Logistic regressions were performed while adjusting for several sociodemographic and clinical variables. RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 1345 participants [mean age (SD) 74.0 (4.9) years], of whom 55 (4.1%) were identified as frail. After adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical variables, higher protein intake was significantly associated with a lower frailty prevalence [odds ratio (OR) = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.19-0.89; P = .024] whereas no significant association was observed between an optimal energy intake and the presence of frailty (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.32-1.55, P = .38). CONCLUSIONS: A 1 g/kg protein intake was associated with a lower prevalence of frailty in French community-dwelling older subjects. This observation adds to the literature, suggesting increasing the daily protein intake to at least 1 g/kg for older adults aged 65 and more.